Every factual sentence carries assertions checked against the recorded evidence: references must resolve, figures and quotations must be in the cited passage, arithmetic must reproduce, and an independent reviewer must approve the wording. Automated validation says whether the narration is ready for human editorial review; it does not establish truth.
Open a sentence to see its assertions, their status and the passages behind them. Sentences without a marker make no factual claim.
verified s01.a Trump said at his Kalispell, Montana rally that tariffs don't cause inflation.
supported (approved): no direct support, 1 contradicting, 1 source statement.
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s03.a In the State of the Union, Trump said countries are now paying the US hundreds of billions of dollars.
supported (approved): no direct support, 1 contradicting, 1 source statement.
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s04.a Patrick Boyle said a tariff is just a tax paid by Americans, not by Canadians.
supported (approved): no direct support, 1 source statement.
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s06.a The NY Fed regressions take as the dependent variable import prices exclusive of tariffs, that is, foreign export prices, to estimate how much of the tariff incidence foreign exporters bore.
supported (approved): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.85).
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s07.a In the first eight months of 2025, a 10 percent tariff caused only a 0.6 percentage point decline in foreign export prices.
supported (approved): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.85).
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s07.b 94 percent of the tariff incidence was borne by U.S. importers in January-August 2025.
supported (approved): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.85).
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s08.a A larger share of the tariff incidence was borne by foreign exporters by the end of 2025; in November the incidence on U.S. importers was 86 percent.
supported (approved): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.85).
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s10.a Studying the 2025 U.S. tariffs, the staff report finds about 26 percent of the tariff increase passes through to consumer prices, measured relative to less-exposed goods with aggregate conditions held fixed.
supported (approved): 2 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.85).
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s11.a 36 percent of the consumer price increase arises indirectly: tariffs raise the cost of imported inputs used by U.S. producers, and domestic producers raise their markups because they face less competition from higher-priced imports.
supported (approved): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.85).
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s13.a The direct effect of higher import prices: about half is in place after 3 months and all of it by 6 months, as retailers take a few months to pass on higher costs.
supported (approved): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.6).
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s14.a The indirect effect takes 9 to 12 months to work its way through supply chains.
supported (approved): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.85).
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s15.a In NY Fed business surveys, some businesses cited fixed-price contracts they cannot raise until expiry, and some a 'trickle up' approach of gradual increases to avoid shocking customers.
supported (approved): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.5).
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s17.a The tariff effect on the consumer goods price level peaked near 3 percent in February 2026; the forecast has it easing to about 2 percent by August 2026, reflecting the early-2026 tariff cut after a U.S. Supreme Court ruling, and edging up again after August 2026 mainly because of the tariffs on Canadian goods.
qualified (qualify): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.7), 1 qualifying.
warning needs-qualification: NY Fed blog: more pass-through in the pipeline (Jul 2026): Business surveys show firms spreading tariff-related price increases over extended periods, so what is in principle a one-time price-level adjustment is in practice drawn out, especially when tariffs change frequently. Add the qualification: the evidence supports a narrower or weaker statement.
verified s18.a The tariff contribution to twelve-month changes in consumer goods prices peaked in February 2026 at 2.9 percentage points and is forecast to fall to around zero by August 2026.
qualified (qualify): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.7), 1 qualifying.
warning needs-qualification: NY Fed blog: more pass-through in the pipeline (Jul 2026): Business surveys show firms spreading tariff-related price increases over extended periods, so what is in principle a one-time price-level adjustment is in practice drawn out, especially when tariffs change frequently. Add the qualification: the evidence supports a narrower or weaker statement.
verified s19.a NY Fed survey researchers write that a one-time price-level adjustment may in practice be a drawn-out affair, especially when the tariffs change frequently, with many firms spreading price increases across extended periods.
qualified (qualify): no direct support, 1 qualifying.
warning needs-qualification: NY Fed blog: more pass-through in the pipeline (Jul 2026): Business surveys show firms spreading tariff-related price increases over extended periods, so what is in principle a one-time price-level adjustment is in practice drawn out, especially when tariffs change frequently. Add the qualification: the evidence supports a narrower or weaker statement.
verified s20.a U.S. firms and consumers bore the bulk of the economic burden of the 2025 tariffs; foreign exporters bore a small share.
supported (approved): 2 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.85).
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s20.b The 2025 tariffs had economically and statistically significant effects on consumer prices, including through goods made at home.
supported (approved): 2 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.85).
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s21.a Because the results rest on differences in tariff exposure across goods, they capture relative price effects rather than the economy-wide component of inflation, and do not account for the tariff impact on the exchange rate or the monetary-policy response.
supported (approved): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.85).
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s22.a Tariffs have left consumer goods price levels higher while their effect on inflation fades; in practice many firms spread the increases across extended periods.
qualified (qualify): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.7), 1 qualifying.
warning needs-qualification: NY Fed blog: more pass-through in the pipeline (Jul 2026): Business surveys show firms spreading tariff-related price increases over extended periods, so what is in principle a one-time price-level adjustment is in practice drawn out, especially when tariffs change frequently. Add the qualification: the evidence supports a narrower or weaker statement.
verified s24.a The indirect effect through domestically produced goods takes 9 to 12 months to work its way through supply chains.
supported (approved): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.85).
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
21 scenes, 4:31 at 150 words per minute including pauses. Narration is copied from the script; every chart value and on-screen citation is checked against a passage.
1. sc01 · 0:00 to 0:07 typography
At a rally in Montana this October, President Trump told the crowd that "tariffs don't cause inflation".
Visual. Quote card: the four words type on in large type; 'inflation' lands last and holds.
On screen. "tariffs don't cause inflation"
Cite. Donald Trump, Kalispell, Montana rally, Oct 2026
2. sc02 · 0:07 to 0:15 typography
If he is right, a tariff costs shoppers nothing extra. If he is wrong, somebody here is paying it.
Visual. One title line; 'paying' punches in on the last word.
On screen. Somebody here is paying it
3. sc03 · 0:15 to 0:26 typography
In his State of the Union, Trump said who he thinks pays: countries that were ripping us off "are now paying us hundreds of billions of dollars".
Visual. Quote card with Trump's words only; 'paying us' is emphasised as it is spoken.
On screen. "are now paying us hundreds of billions of dollars"
Cite. Donald Trump, 2026 State of the Union (PBS NewsHour)
4. sc04 · 0:26 to 0:35 typography
On his channel, Patrick Boyle puts it the other way round: "A tariff is just a tax paid by Americans, not by Canadians."
Visual. Quote card mirroring sc03; 'paid by Americans' is emphasised.
On screen. "A tariff is just a tax paid by Americans, not by Canadians."
Cite. Patrick Boyle, YouTube
5. sc05 · 0:35 to 0:41 transition
They cannot both be right. So follow the cost, starting at the border.
Visual. Split field: the two quotes slide apart and the gap opens on the line 'Follow the cost'.
On screen. Follow the cost
6. sc06 · 0:41 to 0:54 document-excerpt
If foreign sellers were paying, they would have cut their prices to make room for the tariff, so economists at the New York Fed checked their prices with the tariff taken out.
Visual. The New York Fed blog passage; the definition of the measured price is highlighted as 'tariff taken out' is spoken.
7. sc07 · 0:54 to 1:09 data-chart
In the first eight months of 2025, a 10 percent tariff cut those prices by only 0.6 percentage points, which by the Fed's estimate left 94 percent of the cost with American importers.
Visual. Two tiles: the small foreign price cut lands first, then the 94 percent share borne by the U.S. punches in larger.
| Foreign price cut per 10 percent tariff | 0.6 percentage point | 0.6 | percent | NY Fed blog: who is paying the 2025 tariffs (Feb 2026), lines 29-L35 |
| Share of the cost on the U.S. | 94 percent | 94 | percent | NY Fed blog: who is paying the 2025 tariffs (Feb 2026), lines 29-L35 |
8. sc08 · 1:09 to 1:18 data-chart
Foreign sellers did start giving more ground late in the year, yet in November importers still carried 86 percent.
Visual. Three horizontal bars by period; the November bar is highlighted on '86 percent'.
| January-August | 94 | 94 | percent | NY Fed blog: who is paying the 2025 tariffs (Feb 2026), lines 29-L35 |
| September-October | 92 | 92 | percent | NY Fed blog: who is paying the 2025 tariffs (Feb 2026), lines 29-L35 |
| November | 86 | 86 | percent | NY Fed blog: who is paying the 2025 tariffs (Feb 2026), lines 29-L35 |
9. sc09 · 1:18 to 1:28 typography
But an importer paying at the border is not yet a shopper paying at the till. How much of it reaches the shelf?
Visual. The question types on, centred.
On screen. How much of it reaches the shelf?
10. sc10 · 1:28 to 1:44 data-chart
A New York Fed staff report on the 2025 tariffs estimates that consumer prices rise by about 26 percent of the tariff increase, roughly a quarter of the tariff rate, measured against goods less exposed to the tariffs.
Visual. One big tile: 26 percent of the tariff increase passes to consumer prices.
| Pass-through to consumer prices, 2025 tariffs | 26 percent | about 26 | percent | NY Fed tariff pass-through study (Amiti, Heise, Weinstein), lines 15-L24 |
11. sc11 · 1:44 to 1:58 data-chart
And not all of that comes from imports: 36 percent of it comes from goods made at home, because American producers pay more for imported parts, and with foreign rivals pricier, they raise their markups.
Visual. One stacked bar: imported varieties 64 percent, made at home 36 percent; the home segment lights up on '36 percent'.
| Imported goods (direct) | 64 percent | 64 | percent | NY Fed tariff pass-through study (Amiti, Heise, Weinstein), lines 15-L24 |
| Made at home (indirect) | 36 percent | 36 | percent | NY Fed tariff pass-through study (Amiti, Heise, Weinstein), lines 15-L24 |
12. sc12 · 1:58 to 2:26 typography
Nor does it arrive the day a tariff is announced. In the New York Fed's estimates, about half of the direct effect on imported goods is in shop prices after three months, and all of it after six, as retailers take a few months to pass on higher costs. The part that runs through American-made goods is slower still, taking nine to twelve months to work through supply chains.
Visual. A list built one line per sentence: not on day one; imports half in three months, all in six; made at home nine to twelve months.
On screen. Not the day it is announced / Imports: half after three months, all after six / Made at home: nine to twelve months
Cite. New York Fed, how fast tariffs pass through, Oct 2026Amiti, Heise and Weinstein, NY Fed Staff Report 1201
13. sc13 · 2:26 to 2:42 document-excerpt
Firms in the New York Fed's business surveys gave their reasons for spreading increases out: some sell under fixed-price contracts they cannot change until they expire, and some raise prices a little at a time to avoid shocking customers.
Visual. The New York Fed survey passage; the fixed-price contracts line, then the gradual increases line, highlighted.
14. sc14 · 2:42 to 2:48 typography
So is a tariff a one-time bump in prices, or lasting inflation?
Visual. The question types on.
On screen. A one-time bump, or lasting inflation?
15. sc15 · 2:48 to 3:09 data-chart
The New York Fed estimates the tariffs' effect on the level of consumer goods prices peaked near 3 percent in February 2026, and forecasts it to ease to about 2 percent by August after a Supreme Court ruling cut some tariffs, then edge up again with new tariffs on Canadian goods.
Visual. Two tiles: the February 2026 peak, then the August 2026 forecast.
| Peak, February 2026 | 3 percent | about 3 | percent | NY Fed blog: how fast tariffs pass through (Oct 2026), lines 29-L31 |
| Forecast, August 2026 | 2 percent | about 2 | percent | NY Fed blog: how fast tariffs pass through (Oct 2026), lines 29-L31 |
16. sc16 · 3:09 to 3:21 data-chart
Its contribution to the yearly rise in consumer goods prices also peaked that February, at 2.9 percentage points, and is forecast to fall to around zero by August.
Visual. One tile: 2.9 percentage points at the February 2026 peak, with the caption that it is forecast to fall to around zero by August.
| Peak, February 2026 | 2.9 percentage points | 2.9 | percent | NY Fed blog: how fast tariffs pass through (Oct 2026), lines 29-L31 |
17. sc17 · 3:21 to 3:33 document-excerpt
But the Fed's survey researchers warn that "one-time" can be "a drawn-out affair, especially when the tariffs change frequently", with many firms spreading price increases across extended periods.
Visual. The survey passage with the 'drawn-out affair' phrase highlighted.
18. sc18 · 3:33 to 3:47 typography
So who pays? By the Fed's estimates, mostly not foreign sellers: American importers carried the bulk of the 2025 tariffs, and part of that cost reached consumer prices, including for goods made at home.
Visual. One title line answering who pays.
On screen. Mostly not foreign sellers
Cite. New York Fed, who is paying the 2025 tariffsAmiti, Heise and Weinstein, NY Fed Staff Report 1201
19. sc19 · 3:47 to 4:01 document-excerpt
What these estimates cannot give you is the economy-wide inflation rate: they compare goods more and less exposed to tariffs, and leave out effects through the exchange rate and the Fed's monetary-policy response.
Visual. The staff report's limitation paragraph with the exchange-rate and monetary-policy line highlighted.
20. sc20 · 4:01 to 4:11 typography
Within those limits, the tariffs look more like a step up in prices than lasting inflation, though a step that firms are taking slowly.
Visual. One title line.
On screen. A step up in prices, taken slowly
Cite. New York Fed, how fast tariffs pass through, Oct 2026New York Fed business surveys, Jul 2026
21. sc21 · 4:11 to 4:31 typography
Next time someone says another country pays a tariff, ask one question: did that country's sellers cut their prices? And when a tariff changes, don't judge it by next week's receipts; the goods made at home take the better part of a year to catch up.
Visual. A two-line list built one line per sentence.
On screen. Did their sellers cut their prices? / Made at home: the better part of a year