Every factual sentence carries assertions checked against the recorded evidence: references must resolve, figures and quotations must be in the cited passage, arithmetic must reproduce, and an independent reviewer must approve the wording. Automated validation says whether the narration is ready for human editorial review; it does not establish truth.
Open a sentence to see its assertions, their status and the passages behind them. Sentences without a marker make no factual claim.
verified s01.a Trump said at his Kalispell, Montana rally that we have very little inflation.
supported (approved): no direct support, 1 contradicting, 1 source statement.
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s02.a A CBS News politics reporter said inflation is higher than when Trump took office.
supported (approved): no direct support, 1 source statement.
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s04.a Trump said we don't have inflation.
supported (approved): no direct support, 1 contradicting, 1 source statement.
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s05.a The BLS reported that the CPI-U rose 3.7 percent over the 12 months to September 2026 and rose again on a seasonally adjusted basis in September, after rising in August.
supported (approved): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.95).
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s07.a Trump said at the Montana rally that his administration inherited the worst inflation in history.
supported (approved): no direct support, 1 source statement.
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s08.a The 12-month CPI-U change peaked at 9.1 percent in June 2022 and was 3.7 percent in September 2026, less than half the peak.
supported (approved): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.95).
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s09.a The Right-Wing Populist said January CPI was the lowest we've had in five years.
supported (approved): no direct support, 1 source statement.
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s10.a The 12-month CPI-U change was 2.4 percent in January 2026; since March 2021 only April 2025, at 2.3 percent, was lower; in January and February 2020 it was 2.5 and 2.3 percent.
supported (approved): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.7).
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s11.a The 12-month CPI-U change in September 2026 was higher than every monthly reading in 2024 and 2025.
supported (approved): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.85).
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s12.a The 12-month CPI-U change was 3.0 percent in January 2025 and higher, 3.7 percent, in September 2026.
supported (approved): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.95).
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s13.a Trump told reporters we're at 1.7% inflation for the last three months.
supported (approved): no direct support, 1 contradicting, 1 source statement.
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s15.a Seasonally adjusted CPI-U rose from 332.568 in June to 336.298 in September 2026, an annualized pace of about 4.6 percent.
supported (approved): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.85).
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
Calculation: 100 * (336.298 / 332.568) * (336.298 / 332.568) * (336.298 / 332.568) * (336.298 / 332.568) - 100 = 4.6
verified s16.a Seasonally adjusted CPI-U went from 333.979 (2026-05) to 334.131 (2026-08), an annualized pace of about 0.2 percent, after a fall of 0.4 percent in June.
supported (approved): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.85).
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
Calculation: 100 * (334.131 / 333.979) * (334.131 / 333.979) * (334.131 / 333.979) * (334.131 / 333.979) - 100 = 0.2
verified s18.a The Federal Reserve said at its September press conference that for more than five years inflation has been running above target.
supported (approved): no direct support, 2 qualifying, 1 source statement.
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s19.a The FOMC's September 2026 statement says inflation remains elevated and names the Committee's 2 percent goal.
qualified (qualify): no direct support, 2 qualifying.
warning needs-qualification: FOMC statement, 16 Sep 2026: The September 16, 2026 FOMC statement says inflation remains elevated and names the Committee's goal as 2 percent, so inflation was above target in September 2026; the statement says nothing about how long it has been above. Add the qualification: the evidence supports a narrower or weaker statement.
verified s19.b FOMC participants' September 2026 projection for PCE inflation (fourth quarter of the previous year to fourth quarter of 2026) is 3.7 percent, against a longer-run rate of 2.0; PCE inflation is the change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures.
qualified (qualify): no direct support, 2 qualifying.
warning needs-qualification: fomc-sep-2026-09-16.txt: FOMC participants project PCE inflation of 3.7% for 2026 against a longer-run rate of 2.0%, and the note defines PCE inflation as the change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, so on the Fed's own index 2026 runs well above 2%; it does not cover earlier years. Add the qualification: the evidence supports a narrower or weaker statement.
verified s20.a The 12-month CPI-U change has been at least 2.3 percent in every month with a reading from March 2021 through September 2026.
qualified (qualify): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.85), 2 qualifying.
warning needs-qualification: FOMC statement, 16 Sep 2026: The September 16, 2026 FOMC statement says inflation remains elevated and names the Committee's goal as 2 percent, so inflation was above target in September 2026; the statement says nothing about how long it has been above. fomc-sep-2026-09-16.txt: FOMC participants project PCE inflation of 3.7% for 2026 against a longer-run rate of 2.0%, and the note defines PCE infl…
verified s22.a The Right-Wing Populist said prices are technically expanding, but the actual rate is decreasing.
supported (approved): no direct support, 1 source statement.
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s23.a From January 2023 to September 2024 the 12-month CPI-U change fell from 6.4 percent to 2.4 percent while the CPI-U level rose from 299.17 to 315.301, about 5.4 percent.
supported (approved): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.9).
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
Calculation: 100 * 315.301 / 299.17 - 100 = 5.4
verified s24.a The CPI-U rose 3.7 percent over the 12 months to September 2026, so there is inflation.
supported (approved): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.95).
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s24.b The 12-month CPI-U change in September 2026 was well below its June 2022 peak.
supported (approved): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.95).
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s25.a The 12-month CPI-U change eased from 3.0 percent in September 2025 to 2.4 percent in January and February 2026, then rose to 3.3, 3.8 and 4.2 percent in March, April and May 2026.
qualified (qualify): no direct support, 1 qualifying.
warning needs-qualification: BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026: Headline CPI fell from 3.0% (September 2025) to 2.4% in January and February 2026, then jumped to 3.3%, 3.8% and 4.2% in March-May as the gasoline index rose 24.9% in March alone; the series confirm the fall and the energy-driven rebound, while the attribution to the Iran conflict comes from outside these documents. Add the qualification: the evidence s…
verified s26.a NBC News said inflation was heading towards that number earlier this year.
supported (approved): no direct support, 1 qualifying, 1 source statement.
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s26.b NBC News said that with the Iran war prices shot up.
supported (approved): no direct support, 1 qualifying, 1 source statement.
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s27.a The CPI-U series shows the 2026 rise in the 12-month rate but does not name its cause.
qualified (qualify): no direct support, 1 qualifying.
warning needs-qualification: BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026: Headline CPI fell from 3.0% (September 2025) to 2.4% in January and February 2026, then jumped to 3.3%, 3.8% and 4.2% in March-May as the gasoline index rose 24.9% in March alone; the series confirm the fall and the energy-driven rebound, while the attribution to the Iran conflict comes from outside these documents. "cause" is stronger than the evidence…
verified s41.a The CPI-U gasoline index (NSA) rose 24.9 percent in March 2026, 11.1 percent in April and 8.6 percent in May, then fell 9.7 percent in June.
qualified (qualify): no direct support, 1 qualifying.
warning needs-qualification: BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026: The CPI gasoline index rose 24.9% in March, 11.1% in April and 8.6% in May 2026 (263.4 to 397.0), fell 9.7% in June when all-items CPI fell, and stood 34.2% above a year earlier in September 2026, tracking the jump in headline CPI; the series gives no basket weights, so it shows co-movement rather than the exact share. Add the qualification: the evidenc…
verified s28.a BLS reported the gasoline index rose 9.1 percent in September 2026, accounting for over half of the monthly all items increase.
qualified (qualify): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.95), 1 qualifying.
warning needs-qualification: BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026: The CPI gasoline index rose 24.9% in March, 11.1% in April and 8.6% in May 2026 (263.4 to 397.0), fell 9.7% in June when all-items CPI fell, and stood 34.2% above a year earlier in September 2026, tracking the jump in headline CPI; the series gives no basket weights, so it shows co-movement rather than the exact share. [partial: the verdict note limits …
verified s29.a An economist on PBS NewsHour said the war in Iran is not causing medical care, dental care, toys, apparel price rises.
supported (approved): no direct support, 1 qualifying, 1 source statement.
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s30.a BLS reported that indexes that increased in September 2026 include used cars and trucks, airline fares, medical care and apparel.
qualified (qualify): no direct support, 1 qualifying.
warning needs-qualification: BLS CPI release, September 2026: In September 2026 most major indexes rose (recreation, used cars, education, airline fares, medical care, apparel) and only a small number such as communication fell, and core CPI edged up to 2.6% from 2.4%; but core goods were up only 0.7% over the year and the core monthly rate was unchanged at 0.3%, so the broadening is modest rather than most categories acceler…
verified s31.a BLS reported the all items less food and energy index rose 0.3 percent in September 2026, as it did in August, and 2.6 percent over the year.
qualified (qualify): no direct support, 1 qualifying.
warning needs-qualification: BLS CPI release, September 2026: In September 2026 most major indexes rose (recreation, used cars, education, airline fares, medical care, apparel) and only a small number such as communication fell, and core CPI edged up to 2.6% from 2.4%; but core goods were up only 0.7% over the year and the core monthly rate was unchanged at 0.3%, so the broadening is modest rather than most categories acceler…
verified s32.a Michael Strain said in June, I think underlying inflation is around 3%.
supported (approved): no direct support, 1 qualifying, 1 source statement.
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s33.a The 12-month core CPI-U change ran between 2.4 and 2.9 percent from January to September 2026, down from 3.1 percent in July and August 2025, and rose to 2.6 percent in September after 2.4 in August.
qualified (qualify): no direct support, 1 qualifying.
warning needs-qualification: BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026: Core CPI ran 2.4-2.9% through 2026 (2.6% in September) and core services 2.9-3.4%, so 'around three' overstates core slightly; and it did decelerate, from 3.0-3.1% in mid-2025 to 2.4% in August 2026, before rebounding to 2.6%. Add the qualification: the evidence supports a narrower or weaker statement.
verified s34.a The CPI shelter index rose 3.2 percent over the 12 months to September 2026, faster than the 2.6 percent for all items less food and energy.
supported (approved): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.95).
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s35.a A New York Fed study estimates tariffs made a cumulative contribution of around 2.9 percentage points to price changes for the goods in its sample by February 2026.
qualified (qualify): no direct support, 1 qualifying.
warning needs-qualification: NY Fed tariff pass-through study (Amiti, Heise, Weinstein): Tariffs contributed about 2.9 percentage points to twelve-month inflation in the 67 non-oil consumer goods categories sampled by February 2026, but the estimate is a relative-price effect identified against less-exposed goods and covers goods only (20 percent of the basket), so it does not measure the effect on core CPI as a whole. Add th…
verified s36.a The study identifies the tariff effect relative to less-exposed goods, says the counterfactual should be read as illustrative of the magnitude for the goods in its sample, and so does not measure tariffs' contribution to overall inflation.
qualified (qualify): no direct support, 1 qualifying.
warning needs-qualification: NY Fed tariff pass-through study (Amiti, Heise, Weinstein): Tariffs contributed about 2.9 percentage points to twelve-month inflation in the 67 non-oil consumer goods categories sampled by February 2026, but the estimate is a relative-price effect identified against less-exposed goods and covers goods only (20 percent of the basket), so it does not measure the effect on core CPI as a whole. Add th…
verified s37.a In September 2026 the gasoline index accounted for over half of the monthly all items increase.
qualified (qualify): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.95), 1 qualifying.
warning needs-qualification: BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026: The CPI gasoline index rose 24.9% in March, 11.1% in April and 8.6% in May 2026 (263.4 to 397.0), fell 9.7% in June when all-items CPI fell, and stood 34.2% above a year earlier in September 2026, tracking the jump in headline CPI; the series gives no basket weights, so it shows co-movement rather than the exact share. [partial: the verdict note limits …
verified s37.b Shelter rose 3.2 percent over the year to September 2026, faster than the 2.6 percent for all items less food and energy.
supported (approved): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.95).
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
verified s40.a A falling inflation rate does not mean falling prices: the CPI-U level kept rising while the 12-month rate fell from January 2023 to September 2024.
supported (approved): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.9).
info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.
36 scenes, 6:20 at 150 words per minute including pauses. Narration is copied from the script; every chart value and on-screen citation is checked against a passage.
1. sc01 · 0:00 to 0:07 typography
At a rally in Montana this October, President Trump told the crowd, "we have very little inflation".
Visual. Quote card, text only: the quoted words appear as spoken; "very little" holds and turns amber.
On screen. "we have very little inflation"
Cite. Donald Trump, Kalispell, Montana rally, Oct 2026
2. sc02 · 0:07 to 0:14 typography
On CBS News, a politics reporter put it the other way: "inflation is higher than when he took office".
Visual. Quote card, text only, mirroring sc01; "higher" holds and turns amber.
On screen. "inflation is higher than when he took office"
Cite. CBS News politics reporter
3. sc03 · 0:14 to 0:22 typography
Very little, or more than before? Let's put both claims against the government's own price index.
Visual. The question types on, large and centred.
On screen. Very little, or more than before?
4. sc04 · 0:22 to 0:27 typography
Start with the boldest version: Trump has also said, flatly, "we don't have inflation".
Visual. Quote card, text only; "don't" holds and turns amber.
On screen. "we don't have inflation"
Cite. Donald Trump, via Face the Nation
5. sc05 · 0:27 to 0:38 data-chart
The Bureau of Labor Statistics' September report says otherwise: consumer prices were 3.7 percent higher than a year earlier, and still rising month to month.
Visual. Two tiles: the 12-month rise lands first on "3.7 percent", the monthly rise second on "month to month".
| Over the year | 3.7% | 3.7 | percent | BLS CPI release, September 2026, lines 11-L13 |
| Over the month | 0.6% | 0.6 | percent | BLS CPI release, September 2026, lines 11-L13 |
6. sc06 · 0:38 to 0:46 typography
So there is inflation. The real argument is whether it's high, and that depends on what you compare it with.
Visual. One line, large: the yardstick question that runs through the video.
On screen. Compared with what?
7. sc07 · 0:46 to 0:53 typography
Trump's comparison is the past: "we inherited the worst inflation in history", he told the Montana rally.
Visual. Quote card, text only; "worst" holds and turns amber.
On screen. "we inherited the worst inflation in history"
Cite. Donald Trump, Kalispell, Montana rally, Oct 2026
8. sc08 · 0:53 to 1:08 data-chart
These figures can't rank all of history, but the 2022 peak was real: in June 2022 the yearly rate hit 9.1 percent, and today's is less than half of that.
Visual. Two horizontal bars: June 2022 grows long on "9.1 percent", September 2026 grows to less than half its length on "less than half".
| June 2022 | 9.1% | 9.1 | percent | BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026, lines 48-L99 |
| September 2026 | 3.7% | 3.7 | percent | BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026, lines 48-L99 |
9. sc09 · 1:08 to 1:19 typography
And early this year, the low-inflation case was strong. Of January's reading, the YouTube channel The Right-Wing Populist said it was "the lowest we've had in five years".
Visual. Quote card, text only; "lowest" holds and turns amber.
On screen. "the lowest we've had in five years"
Cite. The Right-Wing Populist, YouTube
10. sc10 · 1:19 to 1:32 data-chart
Close enough: the January rate was 2.4 percent, a whisker above the lowest reading since March 2021 and about the pace of early 2020 just before the pandemic.
Visual. Three short bars of nearly equal length: January 2026, the lowest reading since March 2021, and February 2020; the near-equality is the point.
| January 2026 | 2.4% | 2.4 | percent | BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026, lines 19-L91 |
| Lowest since March 2021 (April 2025) | 2.3% | 2.3 | percent | BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026, lines 19-L91 |
| February 2020 | 2.3% | 2.3 | percent | BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026, lines 19-L91 |
11. sc11 · 1:32 to 1:54 data-chart
By September, that case had gone: the yearly rate was higher than in any month of 2024 or 2025. It was also above the 3.0 percent of January 2025 (the month the administration took office): what he actually inherited, and the comparison CBS was making.
Visual. Three bars: the highest month of 2024-2025 and September 2026 on s11, then January 2025 on s12, labelled as the month the administration took office.
| Highest month of 2024-2025 (March 2024) | 3.5% | 3.5 | percent | BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026, lines 19-L99 |
| September 2026 | 3.7% | 3.7 | percent | BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026, lines 19-L99 |
| January 2025, took office | 3.0% | 3 | percent | BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026, lines 79-L99 |
12. sc12 · 1:54 to 2:02 typography
Trump has a shorter window in mind: "we're at 1.7% inflation for the last three months", he told reporters.
Visual. Quote card, text only; "1.7%" holds and turns amber.
On screen. "we're at 1.7% inflation for the last three months"
Cite. Donald Trump to reporters, Oct 2026
13. sc13 · 2:02 to 2:23 data-chart
The index says otherwise: from June to September, the seasonally adjusted index ran at a pace of about 4.6 percent a year. To be fair, slide that window back one month, to end in August, and the pace drops to about 0.2 percent a year, because prices fell in June.
Visual. Four index-level tiles: May, June, August, September. On s15 June and September light as the window ends; on s16 the highlight slides back to May and August, and June turns red as the level that fell.
| May | 333.979 | 333.979 | count | BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026, lines 191-L195 |
| June | 332.568 | 332.568 | count | BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026, lines 191-L195 |
| August | 334.131 | 334.131 | count | BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026, lines 191-L195 |
| September | 336.298 | 336.298 | count | BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026, lines 191-L195 |
14. sc14 · 2:23 to 2:27 typography
Pick your window, and you pick your answer.
Visual. One line slams on, large.
On screen. Pick your window, pick your answer.
15. sc15 · 2:27 to 2:37 typography
The Federal Reserve, for its part, said at its September press conference that "for more than five years, inflation has been running above target".
Visual. Quote card, text only; "above target" holds and turns amber.
On screen. "for more than five years, inflation has been running above target"
Cite. Federal Reserve press conference, Sep 2026
16. sc16 · 2:37 to 2:49 data-chart
Its stated goal is 2 percent, and its own officials expect 3.7 percent over 2026 on the price index they forecast, called PCE, short for personal consumption expenditures.
Visual. Two tiles: the 2 percent goal on "2 percent", then the officials' 2026 PCE projection on "3.7 percent", labelled PCE.
| Goal | 2 percent | 2 | percent | FOMC statement, 16 Sep 2026, lines 9-L9 |
| Officials' projection for 2026 (PCE) | 3.7 | 3.7 | percent | fomc-sep-2026-09-16.txt, lines 25-L39 |
Cite. FOMC statement, 16 Sep 2026FOMC summary of economic projections, Sep 2026
17. sc17 · 2:49 to 2:60 data-chart
On the consumer price index, the yearly rate hasn't dropped below 2.3 percent in any month with a reading since March 2021.
Visual. One big tile: the lowest 12-month CPI rate in any month since March 2021.
| Lowest month since March 2021 | 2.3% | 2.3 | percent | BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026, lines 33-L99 |
18. sc18 · 2:60 to 3:03 typography
And if the rate does come down, will prices?
Visual. The question types on, large and centred.
On screen. If the rate comes down, will prices?
19. sc19 · 3:03 to 3:10 typography
Even The Right-Wing Populist says not: "prices are technically expanding, but the actual rate is decreasing".
Visual. Quote card, text only; "expanding" and "decreasing" each turn amber as spoken.
On screen. "prices are technically expanding, but the actual rate is decreasing"
Cite. The Right-Wing Populist, YouTube
20. sc20 · 3:10 to 3:25 data-chart
That's what happened after the peak: from January 2023 to September 2024, the yearly rate fell from 6.4 percent to 2.4, while the price level itself rose about 5.4 percent.
Visual. Four tiles in two rows: the yearly rate falling from January 2023 to September 2024 on top, the index level rising over the same months beneath.
| Yearly rate, January 2023 | 6.4% | 6.4 | percent | BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026, lines 55-L75 |
| Yearly rate, September 2024 | 2.4% | 2.4 | percent | BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026, lines 55-L75 |
| Price index, January 2023 | 299.17 | 299.17 | count | BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026, lines 55-L75 |
| Price index, September 2024 | 315.301 | 315.301 | count | BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026, lines 55-L75 |
Cite. BLS CPI-U
21. sc21 · 3:25 to 3:35 typography
So inflation is not gone, and it is not at its peak. Which leaves the next question: what is pushing it up?
Visual. Lines build one per clause: the two verdicts, then the next question.
On screen. Not gone / Not at its peak / What is pushing it up?
Cite. BLS CPI release, September 2026BLS CPI-U, 12-month change
22. sc22 · 3:35 to 3:45 data-chart
The rate had been easing into the new year; then, from March to May, it climbed to 3.3, 3.8 and 4.2 percent.
Visual. Four bars, February to May 2026, each growing on its figure; the last three climb.
| February | 2.4% | 2.4 | percent | BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026, lines 87-L99 |
| March | 3.3% | 3.3 | percent | BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026, lines 87-L99 |
| April | 3.8% | 3.8 | percent | BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026, lines 87-L99 |
| May | 4.2% | 4.2 | percent | BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026, lines 87-L99 |
23. sc23 · 3:45 to 3:55 typography
NBC News said the economy had been "heading towards that number earlier this year", the Fed's target, "but then with the Iran war prices shot up".
Visual. Quote card, text only, two lines appearing as spoken; "Iran war" holds and turns amber.
On screen. "heading towards that number earlier this year" / "but then with the Iran war prices shot up"
Cite. NBC NewsNBC News
24. sc24 · 3:55 to 4:17 data-chart
The price tables confirm the jump, but they don't say what caused it. One line in them stands out, though: gasoline's own index leapt 24.9 percent in March alone and kept rising through May before falling back in June, but the tables don't say how much of the overall jump that explains.
Visual. Three tiles, March to May: gasoline monthly change; March lands large on "24.9 percent", April and May follow on "kept rising through May".
| March | 24.9% | 24.9 | percent | BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026, lines 476-L483 |
| April | 11.1% | 11.1 | percent | BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026, lines 476-L483 |
| May | 8.6% | 8.6 | percent | BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026, lines 476-L483 |
25. sc25 · 4:17 to 4:26 document-excerpt
September's report is more specific: gasoline rose 9.1 percent in that one month and accounted for over half of the month's whole rise.
Visual. The release paragraph with the gasoline sentence highlighted as it is spoken.
26. sc26 · 4:26 to 4:35 typography
But an economist on PBS NewsHour pointed out that "the war in Iran is not causing medical care, dental care, toys, apparel".
Visual. Quote card, text only; the list of items appears as spoken.
On screen. "the war in Iran is not causing medical care, dental care, toys, apparel"
Cite. Economist on PBS NewsHour
27. sc27 · 4:35 to 4:44 document-excerpt
The report agrees that it isn't only fuel: used cars, airline fares, medical care and apparel all went up in September.
Visual. The release paragraph on core with the list of rising indexes highlighted.
28. sc28 · 4:44 to 4:56 data-chart
But the spread is modest: prices outside food and energy, called core, rose 0.3 percent on the month, no faster than in August, and 2.6 percent over the year.
Visual. Two tiles labelled core: the monthly rise on "0.3 percent", the yearly on "2.6 percent".
| Over the month | 0.3% | 0.3 | percent | BLS CPI release, September 2026, lines 20-L27 |
| Over the year | 2.6% | 2.6 | percent | BLS CPI release, September 2026, lines 20-L27 |
29. sc29 · 4:56 to 5:04 typography
Some economists think the underlying rate is higher. "I think underlying inflation is around 3%", Michael Strain said in June.
Visual. Quote card, text only; "around 3%" holds and turns amber.
On screen. "I think underlying inflation is around 3%"
Cite. Michael Strain, via Wealthion, June 2026
30. sc30 · 5:04 to 5:24 data-chart
Core has run a little under that all year, between 2.4 and 2.9 percent, and it had slowed from 3.1 percent in the summer of 2025 before ticking back up. Housing runs hotter: the shelter index rose 3.2 percent over the year.
Visual. Horizontal bars: core's lowest and highest months of 2026 and its summer 2025 rate on s33, then shelter on s34, the longest of the 2026 bars.
| Core, lowest of 2026 (August) | 2.4% | 2.4 | percent | BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026, lines 277-L291 |
| Core, highest of 2026 (May) | 2.9% | 2.9 | percent | BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026, lines 277-L291 |
| Core, summer 2025 (July) | 3.1% | 3.1 | percent | BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026, lines 277-L291 |
| Shelter, September | 3.2 | 3.2 | percent | BLS CPI release, September 2026, lines 185-L186 |
Cite. BLS CPI-U core, 12-month changeBLS CPI release, September 2026
31. sc31 · 5:24 to 5:35 data-chart
And tariffs? Economists at the New York Fed estimate they added around 2.9 percentage points to price growth for the goods they studied, by February 2026.
Visual. One big tile: the estimated cumulative tariff effect on the goods studied, by February 2026.
| Added to price growth by February 2026 | 2.9 percentage points | about 2.9 | percent | NY Fed tariff pass-through study (Amiti, Heise, Weinstein), lines 1031-L1038 |
Cite. NY Fed tariff pass-through study (Amiti, Heise, Weinstein)
32. sc32 · 5:35 to 5:46 document-excerpt
They caution that it measures those goods against less-exposed ones, so the number is illustrative, and it doesn't tell us how much of overall inflation tariffs explain.
Visual. The paper's paragraph with the caution highlighted.
Cite. NY Fed tariff pass-through study (Amiti, Heise, Weinstein)
33. sc33 · 5:46 to 5:56 typography
So in September the biggest single push was gasoline, while core sat a little under Strain's figure, with housing above it.
Visual. Three lines build one per clause.
On screen. Biggest single push: gasoline / Core: a little under / Housing: above
Cite. BLS CPI release, September 2026BLS CPI release, September 2026
34. sc34 · 5:56 to 6:02 typography
The people quoted here mostly weren't arguing about the numbers; they were arguing about the yardstick.
Visual. One line, large.
On screen. Not the numbers: the yardstick
35. sc35 · 6:02 to 6:10 typography
So when someone tells you inflation is high or low, ask: compared with what, and over which months?
Visual. Two lines build as spoken.
On screen. Compared with what? / Over which months?
36. sc36 · 6:10 to 6:20 typography
And when you hear the rate is falling, check core, and remember that a slower rate still means prices that are climbing.
Visual. Two lines build as spoken.
On screen. Check core / A slower rate still means climbing prices
Cite. BLS CPI-U